Pakistan is experiencing a political crisis. This crisis started with the opposition's no-confidence motion against Imran Khan. It has also resulted in a political situation in the Punjab Provincial Assembly and a constitutional crisis. Let's look at what these crises mean for the country and how they affect the economy.
Imran Khan's battle
with opponents
As Pakistan's prime minister, Imran Khan has faced a tough battle with his political opponents. The opposition has accused Khan of economic mismanagement and claims he is unfit to serve as prime minister. A no-confidence vote is expected to be held early next week. It could either strengthen or weaken Khan's position. It's also possible that the opposition could have leaders waiting in the wings to take his place.
The recent upheaval in the Pakistani political system has further fueled public discontent with the government. They say that the government of the United States is behind the ouster of his government and that the military and ruling party conspired to overthrow him.
The army, which ruled over the country for most of Pakistan's history, has a tense relationship with Imran Khan. Although the military has ruled directly for more than half of the country's history, it has frequently ruled indirectly as a civilian government. This dissatisfaction with the army intensified after Khan and his opponents split over a controversial issue. The opposition also accuses Khan of ignoring the deteriorating economic situation and mishandling the coronavirus pandemic. However, the army and Khan deny any falling out.
The PTI leader has been talking endlessly about threats against his party and claiming that his opponents were plotting to assassinate him. It is dangerous because predictions of bloodshed could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. In this way, Imran Khan's supporters have effectively asked the army to interfere in politics and put Pakistan on the brink. It is not the way to make Pakistani society stronger.
Since the country's founding, no prime minister has been able to serve a full five-year term. Imran Khan's opponents have been trying to dismantle his government for months.
Opposition parties' demands for early elections
Opposition parties are demanding early elections in Pakistan. They also require the sacking of the Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on Information and a transparent investigation into media reports. The parties say an early election is needed to appease the courts and military. They also want a neutral caretaker government to oversee the three-month election period. The coalition has tabled a resolution in the parliament demanding free and fair elections.
The government is preparing to call early elections in Pakistan. However, it is at loggerheads with the courts, opposition parties, and the military establishment. The embattled government has agreed to hold national polls soon after the March Senate election. It is also planning separate elections for the upper house of parliament. Analysts are concerned that an early election could spark a coup.
The government has to respect the constitution and the law. It should also allow civilian leaders to govern the country. The army should stop meddling in the political affairs of the country. It damages the economy and undermines the government's ability to perform its governance role. But the military must know that repeated cycles of political instability erode the economy and impede effective governance.
In Pakistan, despite its strong economic and political standing, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government cannot resolve the country's crisis. He has been forced to make unpopular decisions to revive a bailout program with the IMF. The government secured a $1.2 billion loan from the multilateral lender last week and is expected to receive another $4 billion in external financing by the end of July.
The PPP and the PML-N cannot agree on how to resolve the problem. Both parties disagree over whether to pursue direct action or indirect action. The PPP and PML-N have a long-standing rivalry and have yet to reconcile their differences. Even the common goal of removing the Khan government has not been sufficient to align the parties.
Supreme Court ruling
In Pakistan, a political crisis has resulted in the dissolution of parliament and the call for fresh elections. The opposition, led by Imran Khan, has alleged the U.S. and other foreign governments are trying to remove him. The government has promised to hold new elections within 90 days. Meanwhile, the opposition has tabled a no-confidence motion against Khan, saying it has enough support to win the elections. The opposition has also filed a petition in the Supreme Court against the prime minister, claiming he committed treason.
However, the Pakistani Court's institutional legitimacy has suffered a setback in recent years, with many questioning the Court's recent jurisprudence in favour of autocratic governments. This latest ruling may restore the Court's credibility among large segments of the bar while affirming the principle of constitutionalism in the face of populist attacks on constitutional norms.
The ruling could have ramifications for Pakistan's future. It could determine whether future no-confidence motions in the national assembly will stand or be overturned on the grounds of foreign intervention. It could also affect the government's ability to receive a loan instalment from the IMF, which Pakistan needs to avoid further crises.
The decision by the Supreme Court on Pakistan's political crisis is a significant turning point in the country's politics. The country's political leadership remains deeply divided, and no transparent government exists. As a result, the Supreme Court decision will determine the future of Pakistan's constitutional politics.
The Supreme Court has now ordered parliament to reconvene, but the vote is expected to be against Prime Minister Imran Khan. Khan now has very little time to avoid defeat. Nonetheless, the ruling has buoyed the united opposition, which has declared it a victory for Pakistan's democracy. The military has also reportedly given the opposition support, which makes the ruling all the more significant.
The army chief said last weekend that the country is trying to maintain good relations with the U.S. and China - two of its largest export markets. This new political situation is an opportunity for the country's institutions to prove their resiliency.
Impact on Pakistan's economy
Pakistan is suffering from a political crisis that is threatening the fragile economic recovery the country has made. The political situation has become more volatile as tensions between the government and the opposition alliance have increased. In its monthly Economic Update & Outlook report, the Ministry of Finance noted that the global and domestic political scenarios have changed, with recent geopolitical tensions being the significant internal and external economic risks.
One area of political uncertainty is Pakistan's dependence on imported energy. The country's growing power demand has resulted in escalating fossil fuel bills. In response, Pakistan is expected to receive its 19th IMF bailout since the 1970s. With the economy in this state, the government needs to make the necessary reforms to reestablish political stability and boost its long-term growth prospects.
One option is for the army to install an interim caretaker government. This government would consist of technocrats, retired judges, and politicians with limited powers. However, it would be better for the economy if Sharif's government could resolve the political crisis before the next election.
In a time of economic instability, Pakistan is increasingly vulnerable to terrorism. The government has relied on foreign support for decades to overcome a perceived existential threat posed by India. However, as the geopolitical landscape changed, the U.S. pulled its support for Pakistan. The country is no longer America's "all-weather" ally, and its policies in Afghanistan have resulted in the loss of Western aid. Without a stable foreign exchange reserve, Pakistan's economy has suffered dramatically, and the new government may be unable to reverse the trend.
The political crisis has also put Pakistan's reserves at risk. These conditions are essential for unlocking further assistance from the IMF and averting a balance of payments crisis. Although Pakistan is not in as difficult a situation as Sri Lanka, analysts believe it is time for the country to address its financial problems.
Imran Khan is reportedly facing a no-confidence vote in his government. It is the first time in the history of Pakistan that a prime minister has been removed through a no-confidence vote. The opposition accused Khan of losing the parliamentary majority and called for his ouster. Khan responded by amplifying his populist rhetoric and blaming foreign powers for the government's fall.
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