As Pakistan approaches the
general election of 2023, many questions and uncertainties remain. These
include Imran Khan's dominance in the previous election, the new census used in
the polls, and how women and non-Muslims will be elected. These questions are
important for Pakistan to know and understand.
Imran Khan's dominance in Pakistan's general elections
The recent general election
has brought a fresh round of controversy to Pakistan. Prime Minister Imran Khan
dissolved Parliament and announced early elections, but the Supreme Court
quickly reinstated Parliament and ordered the vote. Some commentators are now
embracing the Khan conspiracy theory. The Pakistani economy suffers severe
challenges, including decreasing foreign exchange reserves and massive floods
that have displaced 33 million people. The government estimates the flood
damage at $30 billion to $40 billion. The by-election results were unmoved by
the country's markets, which were widely expected. However, some analysts have
suggested that Khan may seek to renegotiate the PML-N's deal with the IMF. In
addition, the PML-N government would likely be looking toward hikes in
electricity prices. As for Imran Khan's rise to power, the military has been
forced to defend itself against accusations that he is manipulating the
electoral process. He has held rallies against the PDM's leadership, calling
them corrupt and absconding. In July, the PTI won 15 out of the 20 seats in
Punjab. Its success in Punjab has been hailed as a victory for the PTI and a
sign of the party's future power.
The PTI revival has already
had major implications for the country's domestic and foreign policy outlook.
It has introduced new legislation, initiated institutional reforms, and
triggered accountability processes. It has also helped Pakistan achieve new
levels of stability in its civil-military relationship. It has also created a
new middle class and generation of leaders.
While Imran Khan's recent
electoral victory is no guarantee that he will return to Parliament, the PTI
has declared in principle not to take up the seats won on Sunday. Imran Khan's
victory shows that he has enormous popularity in the country.
The political leadership of
Pakistan is now challenging the establishment's dominance and has launched a
"change" ethos. The PTI has become a force in Pakistani politics,
pushing the idea of "change" into the fabric of the governance
system. Imran Khan's recent address to civil servants in Pakistan outlined his
plans to reform the bureaucracy. In his speech, he cited examples of police
reform in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the improved performance of officers.
Moreover, he cited the irrationality of the civil service pay system as one
reason the bureaucracy has become corrupt.
The new census used in the polls
The federal government has
decided to hold the general elections of Pakistan in 2023, and the new census
will be used to conduct the elections. Prime Minister Imran Khan has asked his
coalition partners and political leaders to give their input about the
elections. He said the elections are not likely to be held in the next six to
eight months, but they could be held as early as October 2023. He also said the
country would spend some time rehabilitating the flood victims.
The federal cabinet has also
approved conducting the new census using modern technology and the "de
jour" method, which will allow it to be completed six months before the
general elections of 2023.
As the new government takes
office, it is expected to implement administrative reforms. It will also try to
reduce the influence of PTI officials and appointees in the government.
Meanwhile, the new government will face the challenges of a weak economy, high
unemployment, and a weak rupee. The average Pakistani is feeling the pinch of these
economic woes. The new government will have to address these issues before the
elections are held in 2023.
As elections approach, the
political landscape remains fluid. The opposition remains divided while the
actors in the ruling coalition are increasingly united. In October 2022, a new
census will be conducted eight years after the last census was conducted. If
this happens, the PTI will likely face a backlash from the coalition partners.
The new census will be based
on the United Nations Principles of Census and use a geographic information
system to support the process. It will ensure accuracy, efficiency, and
transparency. Unlike previous censuses, the new census will use modern
technology. The population census would take about one and a half years to
complete.
Women are elected by proportional representation.
In Pakistan, the electoral
system has been tweaked to accommodate women's seats. This new system will
allocate 60 seats to women and ten to minorities according to their overall
seats in single-member constituencies. It is a more equitable way to elect
representatives to both chambers.
The Election Commission of
Pakistan has been working closely with UN Women and local civil society
networks to support the campaign. It held seminars in district election
commission offices and community fairs at universities and colleges to raise
awareness among women voters. It also distributed information about the
importance of gender equality and sexism.
Several reforms have also
been implemented. Over nine million citizens have access to civic information
portals, while another eight million have registered to vote. The Election
Commission of Pakistan has developed a comprehensive strategic plan covering
all critical electoral and institutional reform areas. It has also strengthened
the Gender and Disability Electoral Working Group. In addition, it has trained
230 mid-to-senior-level journalists on media ethics, parliamentary functioning
and conflict management.
However, Pakistan is not the
only country that faces this problem. Many other democracies have already
shifted to a more progressive electoral system. PR systems are easier to
understand and implement. They are better at protecting minorities than FPTP
systems. They also protect minority governments.
Women have made progress in
Pakistan's democracy. The number of elected women in the upper house of
Parliament has increased. They now constitute more than a quarter of the
National Assembly, and women elected to the Senate hold 28 percent of seats. A
new record is being set for female legislators.
It's estimated that the
election will occur less than 60 days after the dissolution of the National
Assembly. The dissolution date for the National Assembly is 13 August 2023. The
election is expected to be held by 12 October 2023. However, Imran Khan has
called for an early election.
Opponents of the PR system
argue that the military's decision to implement the system weakens the forces
of democracy in Parliament. The USDP and other pro-military political parties
have joined the opposition in calling for the change to proportional
representation. But the first meeting of the election commission, which was
appointed by the military, was boycotted by all but five political parties.
Non-Muslims elected by proportional representation.
Non-Muslims should be given
the same chance in the national assembly as their majority counterparts,
Christian leaders in Pakistan say. The country's demographics have changed
significantly in the past four decades. The current system gives non-Muslims a
single seat in the National Assembly rather than a full representation.
Religious minorities account for 3.63 percent of the voters - or just over 17
seats.
Different organizations
conduct polls in Pakistan to gauge voter intentions. These polls measure voter
approval ratings and intention, as well as the approval rating of the current
government led by Imran Khan. These polls cover the period from the last
general election until the present.
The result was a mixed
picture. The PPP won the majority of seats but was still the minority in
several provinces. In Sindh, the Pakistan Peoples Party remained the largest
party, with the most seats. In Balochistan, the Balochistan Awami Party became
the largest party. The Pakistan Muslim League (N) emerged as the largest party
in Punjab.
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